In a closely watched election on Sunday, President Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey led over his opposition rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu but failed to secure an outright majority, setting the stage for a runoff vote on May 28. The election is seen as a critical moment in determining the future of Turkey, including its path towards democracy and secularism, as well as its handling of the cost of living crisis and its relationships with key global players.

Although neither Erdogan nor Kilicdaroglu reached the necessary 50% threshold to avoid a second round, Erdogan performed better than expected according to pre-election polls. With nearly 97% of ballot boxes counted, Erdogan held 49.39% of the votes, while Kilicdaroglu received 44.92%, as reported by the state-owned news agency Anadolu. The High Election Board of Turkey reported Erdogan’s vote share at 49.49% with 91.93% of the ballot boxes counted.

While Kilicdaroglu expressed confidence in his chances of victory in the runoff, he accused Erdogan’s party of interference during the counting and reporting of results. Erdogan, addressing his supporters, expressed confidence in his lead, stating that he was already ahead of his closest rival by 2.6 million votes.

The results highlight the deep polarization within the country, with Turkey now facing two weeks of uncertainty that could potentially impact the economy. Analysts anticipate market fluctuations, including gyrations in the local currency and stock market, as the political landscape unfolds.

The upcoming runoff will not only determine the country’s leadership but also shape its future direction and international relationships, with implications for Russia, the Middle East, and the West. Erdogan’s ruling alliance is expected to gain a majority in parliament, providing him with a potential advantage in the second round.

Prior to the election, opinion polls suggested a tight race, with Kilicdaroglu holding a slight lead in some surveys. However, the outcome defied those predictions, setting the stage for a competitive runoff as Turkey stands at a significant political crossroads.