The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the research unit of The Economist Magazine has again predicted that the presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar will defeat incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2019 presidential polls.

The Economist’s forecast which is contained in its country report on Nigeria and dated October 17 is coming less than two months after it predicted that President Buhari would lose the election.

“The Economist Intelligence Unit expects that the President, Muhammadu Buhari will lose power at the February 2019 elections and that the next government will be led by Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, although his administration will be fragile.

“Mr. Buhari is the APC’s presidential candidate and his main challenger is Mr. Abubakar, who was recently nominated PDP’s candidate with overwhelming backing from the party.

“Abubakar’s pledge is to reinvigorate the economy with pro-market reforms. Both candidates are from northern Nigeria where Buhari’s support base lies, presaging a fierce contest there.

“With the vote likely to be split in the North, Abubakar will find it easier to garner support from the country’s south, which has traditionally been a safe haven for the PDP.

“This gives Abubakar an edge as does popular frustration over the rise in joblessness and poverty (two of the biggest voter concerns) on Mr. Buhari’s watch as well as growing insecurity in central Nigeria.

“Nonetheless, strong incumbency advantages in Nigeria imply that it will be a tight race. If Abubakar loses – a distinct downside risk to our forecast, there may be a rejection of the result by the PDP, which is convinced that the election will be rigged.

“In this scenario, a state of national paralysis could arise with severe national security implication,” the EIU report said.

The London based magazine also noted that without a party system based on shared principles, it would be difficult to overcome the nation’s numerous security threats, adding that instability and legislative paralysis would affect many aspects of the forecast.

The EIU report further predicted severe outbreaks of instability in view of the slow progress made in tackling numerous security and societal challenges as the ruling APC would be focused on intra-party politics to the detriment of security concerns.

“The election period itself will be a time of high risk as a recent election in Osun State demonstrated. A small scale violence at the polls is highly likely as is disputation of the results.

“Parliamentary rift will remain the main problem and this applies no matter who is in charge, given competing priorities between representatives from different regions and the absence of common ideology within parties.

“Without a collective resolve, it would prove impossible to bring permanent peace to the large parts of Nigeria hit variously by an insurgency in the north, ethno-nationalism tensions and disputes over land access across the centre of the country.

“It will prove to be hard to build a more effective security apparatus while also creating economic opportunities for local population; poverty lies at the root of much of the instability.

“Our central forecast is, however that the 2019 elections will be completed without a widespread breakdown of stability – with Nigeria’s democracy proving once again to be robust enough to endure.

“Given the severe risks to stability, speculation over the threat of a military coup or a civil war is likely to surface periodically,” the report added.