South Africa’s highest court declared that former President Jacob Zuma is ineligible to run for parliament in the upcoming election later this month.

The court’s verdict was based on Zuma’s 15-month jail sentence for contempt of court in 2021, which the constitution stipulates disqualifies individuals from holding parliamentary seats if their prison term exceeds 12 months. The ruling explicitly stated, “Mr. Zuma was convicted of an offence and sentenced to more than 12 months’ imprisonment… and is accordingly not eligible to be a member of, and not qualified to stand for election to, the National Assembly.”

Since resigning as president in 2018 under mounting pressure, Zuma has experienced a strained relationship with the ruling African National Congress (ANC) and has been actively campaigning for a new party named uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), named after the ANC’s former armed wing.

Opinion polls suggest that the ANC’s longstanding majority is under threat after three decades in power, and MK poses a particularly significant challenge, especially in Zuma’s home province of KwaZulu-Natal, where he enjoys substantial popularity.

Zuma’s imprisonment in 2021 sparked widespread unrest, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal, resulting in over 300 fatalities and triggering widespread looting.

President Cyril Ramaphosa addressed concerns about potential violence following the constitutional court’s ruling, emphasizing the rule of law in South Africa and the readiness of security forces to maintain order.

Initially disqualified by the electoral commission in March, Zuma’s disqualification was overturned by a court a month later. However, the constitutional court’s decision now definitively bars him from running for parliament. Despite this, Zuma’s face will still appear on the ballots as the registered leader of the MK party.

An Ipsos opinion poll from April indicated roughly 8% support for MK, compared to just over 40% for the ANC. While the ANC remains poised to secure the most votes, falling below the 50% threshold would necessitate seeking coalition partners to govern—a historic development since the party’s ascent to power under Nelson Mandela.

At a recent campaign rally for the MK party, Zuma outlined promises of free education for disadvantaged children and job creation, rallying thousands of supporters in South Africa’s largest township, Soweto.