Nigeria recorded significant revenue gains from rising global oil prices during the four-month conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel, generating an estimated $17.78 billion in gross oil revenue between February and May 2026.

The surge in crude prices, which at one point climbed to $120 per barrel, kept oil trading well above the Federal Government’s 2026 budget benchmark of $64.85 per barrel. The development is estimated to have yielded an excess revenue of about $6.51 billion during the period.

However, the country was unable to fully maximise the windfall due to persistent production shortfalls that left output below the quota allocated by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Analysts estimate that Nigeria lost about $839.22 million in potential revenue during the first four months of the year as a result of underproduction.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that crude oil production remained below the country’s 1.5 million barrels per day OPEC quota from January to April, with only May recording an output of about 1.7 million barrels per day.

The production deficits resulted in estimated revenue losses of $86.02 million in January, $377.35 million in February, $332.27 million in March and $43.59 million in April.

Meanwhile, hopes of a diplomatic resolution to the crisis between Iran and the United States have begun to ease pressure on global oil markets. On Monday, Brent crude traded at $78.14 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $74.18 per barrel.

Despite the recent decline in prices, Nigeria remains one of the major beneficiaries of the oil rally triggered by geopolitical tensions, although industry observers say improved production capacity is critical for the country to fully capitalise on future price surges.